ARIMA model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region

Background: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence. Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models. Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box­Ljung test. The ARIMA (11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set. Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.

"It is just a lot to deal with": A qualitative study exploring the sexual and reproductive health needs of a sample of female sex workers in six locations in Southern Africa

The sexual and reproductive health of female sex workers in Southern Africa is particularly important, given the high prevalence of HIV among this population. This paper presents the results of a rapid assessment study conducted prior to the implementation of the "SRHR-HIV Knows No Borders" project in six Southern African countries. Trained interviewers interviewed 20 sex workers across 10 high migration communities. Data were analysed thematically. Participants were well informed about and were able toaccess preventive methods for STIs and pregnancy, although reports of condom failures were common. While sex workers found SRH services easily accessible, many reported experiences of stigma and discrimination when accessing them. Physical and sexual violence were common occurrences among participants, both from their clients and the police. In addition to addressing stigma within the healthcare and broader community, interventions could provide opportunities for those looking to exit the industry by providing skills training and microfinance support. (Afr J Reprod Health 2022; 26[5]: 72-80).

A model to promote the uptake of male circumcision as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low male circumcision prevalence settings

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remain the leading global burden of disease, especially in Southern Africa. As such, efforts to develop innovative preventive and curative measures continue to be a global priority. Of late, the World Health Organization recognised and recommended mass male circumcision (MC) as an adjunct HIV-preventive measure in 14 selected sub-Sahara African countries. However, despite efforts to promote the uptake of MC in these countries, the uptake remains significantly below set targets. Aim: The purpose of this article is to describe the process that was followed in developing, describing and evaluating a model to promote the uptake of MC as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low MC settings. Setting: The model is designed for all settings of high HIV and low MC prevalence. Method: A theory-generative, qualitative, exploratory, descriptive and contextual research design was used. The process involved four distinct steps, namely concept analysis, description of relationship statements, and description and evaluation of the model using the criteria of clarity, simplicity, generality, accessibility and importance. Results: The central concept was identified as 'promote the uptake of MC', and three integral constituents were identified for the process, such as transforming men's mindsets about MC, facilitating accessibility and utilisation of MC services, and maintaining a supportive social system. These formed the basis for the model. Conclusion: The model provides a framework of reference for healthcare providers in promoting the uptake of MC as an HIV-preventive measure in high HIV and low MC settings

Genetic populations of Bacillus anthracis isolates from Korea

Bacillus (B.) anthracis is the pathogen that causes fatal anthrax. Strain-specific detection of this bacterium using molecular approaches has enhanced our knowledge of microbial population genetics. In the present study, we employed molecular approaches including multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and canonical single-nucleotide polymorphism (canSNP) analysis to perform molecular typing of B. anthracis strains isolated in Korea. According to the MLVA, 17 B. anthracis isolates were classified into A3a, A3b, and B1 clusters. The canSNP analyses subdivided the B. anthracis isolates into two of the three previously recognized major lineages (A and B). B. anthracis isolates from Korea were found to belong to four canSNP sub-groups (B.Br.001/2, A.Br.005/006, A.Br.001/002, and A.Br.Ames). The A.Br.001/002 and A.Br.Ames sub-lineages are closely related genotypes frequently found in central Asia and most isolates were. On the other hand, B. anthracis CH isolates were analyzed that belonged to the B.Br.001/002 sub-group which found in southern Africa, Europe and California (USA). B.Br.001/002 genotype is new lineage of B. anthracis in Korea that was not found before. This discovery will be helpful for the creation of marker systems and might be the result of human activity through the development of agriculture and increased international trade in Korea.

Study on a model of street vended food choices by Korean high school students

Street vended food (SVF) includes food and beverages prepared and sold outdoors or in public areas by street merchants for consumption on the scene or later without further preparation. Due to its low price and convenience, SVF has been popular in Korea for a long time, particularly with high school students. Beyond Korea, SVF is also popular in southeast Asia and southern Africa in the form of ready-to-eat food. This study on high school students, who are main consumers of SVF in Korea, focused on the factors that affect consumer loyalty. The study was performed by questionnaire and used AMOS software to develop a structural equation model. The results of verifying the model's fidelity were chi2 = 685.989, df = 261, GFI = 0.851, AGFI = 0.814, NFI = 0.901, CFI = 0.907, RMR = 0.048, indicating a satisfying structural model. SVF quality and service, emotional response, and the physical environment had a statistically significant effect on consumer loyalty. In contrast, SVF sanitation had no statistically significant effect on consumer loyalty. Based on these results, the sanitary management of SVF needs to be addressed immediately combined with education for SVF providers to maintain a clean environment.

A theropod tooth from the Late Triassic of southern Africa.

An isolated, large recurved and finely serrated tooth found associated with the prosauropod Euskelosaurus fron the Late Triassic part of the Elliot Formation is described here. It is compared to the Triassic thecodonts and carnivorous dinosaurs and its possible affinity is discussed. The tooth possibly belongs to a basal theropod and shows some features similar to the allosauroids. This tooth is of significance, as dinosaur remains except for some footprints and trackways, are poorly known in the Late Triassic horizons of southern Africa.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein concentrations in urban and rural Southern African blacks with hepatocellular carcinoma.

The reason why only some hepatocellular carcinomas synthesize alpha-fetoprotein is not known. Both the frequency with which this foetal globulin is produced and the major aetiological associations of hepatocellular carcinoma vary between populations with high and low incidences of the tumour, raising the possibility that re-expression of the gene for alpha-fetoprotein is determined, or influenced by, the molecular genetic events that occur during hepatocellular carcinogenesis. This hypothesis could be tested by comparing serum alpha-fetoprotein concentrations in populations in which the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma differ. Two such populations are urban and rural southern African blacks. We measured serum alpha-fetoprotein concentrations by radioimmunoassay in 234 southern African blacks with hepatocellular carcinoma: 78 of the patients were urban and they were age-matched with 156 patients born in rural areas, one-half of whom had remained in a rural environment (rural), whereas the others had migrated to the cities in adulthood (rural-urban). Urban patients were more likely than rural-born patients to have a normal serum alpha-fetoprotein value [23.1% (18/78) compared with 10.2% (16/156); p = 0.02]. There was no significant difference between the concentrations in rural and rural-urban patients. The absolute values of the raised serum alpha-fetoprotein values did not differ between urban (69,558 +/- 176,737 ng/ml; and rural-born patients (53,998 +/- 125,681 ng/ml), or between rural (69,207 +/- 159,975 ng/ml) and urban-rural patients (40,434 +/- 83,028 ng/ml). These findings are compatible with the hypothesis that re-expression of the alpha-fetoprotein gene in hepatocellular carcinoma is related to the aetiology or pathogenesis of the tumour.